The first priority for development in Haiti

[Update: This article was initially published January of 2023. Since then security in Haiti has descended to a point that makes all areas of development extremely difficult. This fact makes security the priority for development in Haiti. The points explored in this article will regain relevance once ‘Level 1 Security’ (major supply routes and adjacent police stations are reopened) is achieved.]

This is a wiki of sorts, designed to house the best strategic thinking we at STIMPACK can conceive on the topic of development in Haiti. It should be considered a living document that we will update as data, wisdom, and the situations on the ground advance. We hope that you will contribute to as well as critique this work. You are invited to either use the comment feature on any page or contact us.

What is the objective of this ‘strategic wiki’?

Haiti has many issues as well as many people willing and working to help. We at STIMPACK, as well as many others have observed many interventions that have proven ineffective or even detrimental to development in Haiti. This tool seeks to advance the development of Haiti by thoroughly considering all available information, data and wisdom available in order to strategically apply actionable intelligence to the needs of Haiti.

Moving forward, when we use the word ‘strategy’, we will define it as “leveraging relative strength against relative weakness toward a desired end”.

Developing a strategy for Haiti is difficult work. It is easy to look to the past and throw stones. It is quite another to venture into the high risk world of recommending potential solutions. This wiki seeks to identify what has proven effective in Haiti, what has proven effective in analogous nations, as well as what has been proven ineffective both within Haiti and without. We hope that this approach will surface strategic opportunities that warrant experimentation. Some of those strategic opportunities will seek to have a modest, incremental impact on Haiti while others may aim higher. We hope to discover that space where innovation can flourish wisely. Thank you for your assistance.

The broadest practical view

If we are going to be thorough in our work, then let’s attempt to define the scope of our consideration as broadly as possible without being uselessly broad. We will posit that the following development categories might prove helpful in driving our thinking:

• Governance

• Rule of Law

• Economics

• Social/Health

• Ecology/Sustainability
  

Is this a suitably thorough category set? Are there obstacles that you believe are worth addressing that do not fit into one of these categories? If so, please comment below. As for now, these five basics will define our universe.

The first question

We all prefer to focus our efforts rather than boiling the ocean and achieving nothing. If we seek to focus our efforts in Haiti, where do we start? Which of these issue categories ought to be the focus of the world’s (including Haiti’s own) development efforts today? Shall we simply start with the squeakiest wheel? Or perhaps we should consider which issues are the furthest from the ideal and start there? Or maybe we can use a visit to the doctor as an analog? Can Haiti ‘tell us where it hurts’ or even ‘tells us where it hurts most’? Maybe.

Let’s begin by assessing Haiti’s current status on the aforementioned categories.

BTI Transformation Index does great work on these types of assessments on their website (Haiti Country Report 2022)

Haiti compared with the Dominican Republic:

BTI Transformation Index. the Dominican Republic (RED LINE) compared with Haiti (MULTI-COLORED LINE) credit: bti-project.org

As we compare Haiti with it’s closest neighbor, the Dominican Republic, we can see two things that may be of interest. The first is that Haiti unsurprisingly lags behind the Dominican Republic in every BTI Index measure. The second is that there are no significant standouts. Haiti scores between 2.9 and 3.9 out of 10 on all issues relevant to our question regarding where to focus our attention first. Haiti seems to be telling us ‘it hurts all over’ or that there are simply too many symptoms to know which hurts the most. To stick with the doctor/patient analogy, this makes it difficult for us to diagnose the issue and subsequently recommend a particular therapy.

So what then should drive our decision toward proper prioritization of effort?

Is there a way to stratify the issue categories by significance or criticality? Could it be that not all symptoms are relevant to the diagnosis? Could it be that if we address one symptom properly that it becomes the remedy for the others? Or perhaps the inverse is true? Could it be that no solution will remedy some symptoms unless the underlying, causal symptom is addressed first? Let’s explore these questions.

The Slippery Slope of Scarcity

If we review our category focus options of Governance, Rule of Law, Economics, Social/Health, Ecology/Sustainability, we may see that one of these is not like the others in one material aspect. The economy is the only one on the list that directly generates value. It makes money. All of the other categories take, or require money. One could well argue that the economy is in fact dependent on the other four in order for it to thrive, and indeed that is true (evidenced here: rule of law, peace leads to economic growth, governance drives economics). However, it is a certainty that thriving societies are funded entirely by economic activity. There is no way to pay for the other things without economic markets incentivizing and enabling productivity.

It is also true that economies that produce an insufficient amount of goods and services will suffer greatly from scarcity. Such a society will slide quickly into chaos if it is producing half the needed food. Much, if not all of the unrest in Haiti can be attributed directly or indirectly to economic scarcity. George Bernard Shaw is often attributed with saying “Morals are a luxury of the rich”. This is tragic plight of many citizens at every level of a desperate nation. Important topics like child exploitation, education, women’s rights, sustainability and others will seem trivial to many when they are simply focused on surviving. The drive to survive supersedes all other considerations.

If we look at Haiti’s difficulties with the rule of law, exploitation of women and children, gangs, civil unrest and other issues, we can see that each of these are significantly reduced if Haitian citizens are not in a state of primal panic. It would appear that the economy is the underlying causal symptom. There is no other symptom that seems to be as causally deterministic as is the economy. To expect to be able to establish a strong police force, public education, suitable hospitals, sustainable energy and the like before water and food security are assured seems unwise.

So it would then seem as though we are coming closer to a prioritaztion decision. It would seem as though the economy would be the highest priority item on our list.

The Leadership Solution

Many might say something like “If only we had a great leader in place, then Haiti would prosper economically”. We believe there are two points to consider when evaluating the possibility of Governance as the highest priority item on our list.

The first challenge here is that great leaders are hard to come by in any country. A cursory inventory of world leaders living today may lead you to a small handful of nation leaders worthy of being considered ‘great’. Of the nearly 200 recognized governments in the world, how many of them might you consider qualified to lead a country like Haiti from it’s current status as a nearly, if not entirely failed state, out of poverty and into prosperity? If there are any that would fit that description at all it is certainly an elect few, and they are busy. Does Haiti have great leaders? Certainly. Presuming the election process would allow for Haiti’s most capable leaders to emerge and assume power, would they be able to solve Haiti’s deep difficulties?

This leads us to our second point. One might argue that Haiti has in fact had strong leadership in the past. They took their best their shot (those leaders that were in fact dutiful). No leader in Haiti’s history has ever lead Haiti to prosperity. Let’s talk about why.

First, such a task takes more than one term. This is one of many reasons why leaders often want to overstay their terms.

One might blame their lack of success on the global environment. One might say that those leaders were burdened by global aggression resulting in hostile and oppressive trade policy. That is likely correct. Haiti was saddled by it’s suffocating and merciless debt to France and then embargoed by the U.S. and others for many years. This goes to show that even if you are lucky enough to find and elect a strong, wise, and capable leader, free from corruption, he/she will still have an extremely difficult time achieving prosperity if the economic environment won’t allow the nation to get off the ‘Slope of Scarcity’. To ask a leader to solve Haiti’s issues without economic growth is irrational.

There is only so much that even a great leader can do in dire situations such as what Haiti is facing today, and there is only so fast he/she will be able to make progress. We should all be very hopeful and work hard to ensure Haiti finds and elects one of their great leaders soon. Haiti needs it. Although, to expect a leader to solve the country’s woes without a growing economy us likely folly.

We have to fix it anyway

It is reasonable to presume that while difficult, Haiti will, like all countries, eventually and occasionally enjoy strong governance. It is also reasonable to presume that when the leadership does take over, they are going to need to address the economy. It is also true that economic progress in developing nations is heavily dependent on foreign investment and regional trade policy. There is no escaping the need for economic development. The work of economic development must be done at some point. Why wait? Why wait until good governance and rule of law are in place first?

The typical answer goes something like this; '“We can’t build the economy when there is so much unrest throughout the country”. Or “How can we focus on helping business when there are gangs terrorizing the streets”? Or “Our court system isn’t even functioning yet, shouldn’t that be our highest priority”?

A few points of response:

You might be surprised to know that Haiti in 2021 was both arguably the most violent in Haitis history but also, in actuality Haiti’s most productive, as measured on the basis of GDP alone.

Haiti GDP 2007-2021:

Haiti GDP 2007-2021 CR:woldbank.org

We do not advocate for limiting our assessment of development status to GDP. It is limiting and misleading in many ways.

We site the GDP data here simply to make the following point:

It is not unusual for businesses in Haiti to go to great lengths to ensure continuity of operations. These are resilient, determined, and experienced entrepreneurs and managers. The data suggests that Haitians simply find a way to innovate and progress.

When we look at a chart like the one above we might even be tempted to ask if Haitians need any help at all given the clear positive trajectory. For Haiti to go from $14.5 billion to $20.9 billion in one year is a great step in the right direction although the Real GDP numbers are a bit less favorable.

To put that Haiti’s recent success/apparent resilience into perspective, The GDP of the Dominican Republic has a GDP of $94.2 billion with roughly the same population. That’s nearly 5X the GDP of Haiti. There is a significant amount of economic development to be done in Haiti. It will take a generation or more to complete. Progress most certainly must occur regardless of the quality of it’s governance at any given time. Good governance will enhance economic development efforts but those efforts need not wait for good governance, rule of law, social/health or the environment. The inverse argument is a far more difficult assertion. Good governance, rule of law, social/health and the environment will be unlikely to achieve desired progress without far stronger economic markets to support them. We believe Haiti’s history provides ample evidence to support this claim.

All in on the economy?

Not so fast. There are some pros and cons to consider first. Here are a few arguments both in favor and against prioritizing Economic Development (generated by ChatGPT)

In Favor:

1. Provides resources and opportunities necessary to address other issues

2. Leads to increased government revenue (tax base), which can be used to fund social programs and infrastructure projects

3. May create jobs which can provide people with the means to support themselves and their families.

4. Can lead to the creation of a middle class (reduce inequality), which can be a driving force for social and political change. The idea is that, once people's basic needs are met, and they have some disposable income, they can start thinking about other issues such as education, healthcare, and political participation.

5. Can lead to increased trade and investment, which can help to integrate a country into the global economy and bring new technologies to the country.

Against:

1. Poverty alleviation and economic growth are not the same thing. Economic growth can exacerbate inequality if it does not benefit all members of society, particularly marginalized groups such as women, ethnic minorities, and rural populations, easily undermining social cohesion.

2. Can lead to an over-reliance on extractive industries and a disregard for the environment and the rights of indigenous peoples. It can also lead to the over-exploitation of resources and the concentration of wealth in the hands of an elite few

3. Does not always lead to the improvement of living standards for the majority of citizens, especially in cases where the government is corrupt

There are certainly some potential downsides to prioritizing economic development. Ultimately, the most effective approach to development in poor countries will likely depend on the specific context and needs of each country. Let’s take another look and see if we can mitigate some of the downside risks specific to Haiti.

1. Can we develop an economy without exacerbating wealth inequality?

   In his book “The Prosperity Paradox: How Innovation Can Lift Nations Out of Poverty”, Clayton R. Christiansen of Harvard Business School makes the following point. He argues that market creation that involves non-consumers (those not currently participating in a given market) has been the catalyst for change in several successful national turnaround stories from Africa and Asia. This gives credence to the possibility that Haiti can be lifted by it’s most poor rather than in spite of them.

2. Haiti is not dependent on extractive industries (mines or fossil fuels). This is not likely a risk.

3. Corruption is in fact a significant risk in Haiti given it’s history. However, there are mitigation methods available. Decentralization is a term used to describe the desire to remove some of the intrinsic power endowed by Haiti’s Constitution upon Haiti’s President and Prime Minister in favor of shifting that power toward Haiti’s National Assembly through constitutional reforms or the deployment of ODA. This diffusion of power will likely have the effect of reducing corruption by relocating political power to politicians that are nearer to their constituents and are therefore subject to greater accountability.

The greatest argument against placing a priority focus on economic development is surrounding the notion of opportunity cost. Potential neglect of other important aspects of development such as political and civil rights, education, health and access to services.

If we recommend that economic development ought to be the highest priority, then does that mean that all other development work should cease? Should development be done serially or in parallel? We started this article acknowledging that ‘no one likes to boil the ocean’. Focus is typically preferred in most situations. Focus allows us to bring all of our resources to bear on one specific thing at a time, solve it and move on. We like to do lists for this reason. Should developing Haiti be a big to do list? To do lists, and other higher fidelity project management methodologies like Six Sigma or Agile are effective in situations where tasks are finite. If there is a beginning and an end to a task or objective then these serial project approaches will typically fit. However, in development work, while one might be able to develop finite tasks within a given category of development (completed fair election, untried prisoners down to x%, new port completed, etc.), it is more difficult to determine a finish line for any of the categories. Economic development will never be ‘complete’ per say. It would then make sense to look at development work within each of the five categories as parallel objectives. Those parallel objective may perhaps shift over time. For example, today we might advocate for heavy focus on economic development similar to what is represented in the graph below:

This priority balance places massive importance on the economy. Over time, as the economy improves, it may be reasonable to shift the balance in favor of rule of law.

It may be worth considering how The Core Group today might be represented by a similar balance graph. Based on our conversations with and general understanding of the policies of it’s members regarding Haiti, we might assert that the balance graph below could be representative of their policy priorities as of today (1/23/23).

This infers a strong bias toward the prioritization of Rule of Law as a prerequisite to Good Governance (read fair and democratic elections) and then presumably followed by Economic Development. This is certainly understandable considering where we started at the beginning of this article. It is hard to resist the squeaky wheel and no one who spends time in Haiti would deny that when gangs begin shutting down the ports and destroying police stations that it is nearly impossible to ignore a wheel that loud. The U.S. and The Core Group have begun to send support for The Haitian National Police in hopes of addressing this clearly pressing need. The U.S. is also working to lead an international security force into Haiti to assist with security issues. Assessing the correct priority ratio between Rule of Law and Governance is of course subjective but it is safe to say that both are high priorities as reflected in their remarks at the U.N. Security Briefing (1/24/23). This is not to say that we at STIMPACK are recommending that The Core Group reduce their efforts to establish Rule of Law and Good Governance. To the contrary. Haiti needs all of the proper support we can offer them.

We believe that the following graph reflects a rational balance of prioritization of development efforts over time.

The graphic above suggests that increasing the prioritization of development focus on economic efforts in the near term will allow for, and eventually give way to the remaining categories to each have their opportunity to benefit from international focus.

Our assertion is that it would appear that the full breadth of economic development capabilities of The U.S. and The Core Group are being held in reserve in anticipation for some coming day of peace and security in Haiti. We believe that most economic development efforts are on hold. We see no reason to wait.

It is crucial to understand that as of the date of this writing, our understanding of the economic development tools available to the international community is quite limited. We at StimPack are currently investigating the vast array of tools, methods, agencies, budgets, private corporations, investors and history of economic development efforts in Haiti. There is certainly a chance that all that can be done is in fact being done at a reasonably high level of proficiency. Perhaps this is one of the reasons that the Haitian economy is proving to be remarkably resilient. However, we believe that to be unlikely given the absence of rhetoric or even coverage of such efforts as well as some cursory research we’ve done to date. However, we will reserve judgment and ask that you do as well, while we take the time to look into this more fully. We will update this post once that work progresses sufficiently.